Turan Bank

Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict leads South Caucasus to catastrophe

Azerbaijan and Armenia both accused each other of violating border and both have different narratives.

There are two wars one on the border between Azerbaijan and Armenia and the other war is the information and propaganda war goes on social media.

One thing that is very clear that Armenian has targeted the Tovuz region that is the district inside Azerbaijan; it is not the disputed area of Nagorno Karabakh.

Why Armenia targeted Tovuz.

The cross border fire between the hostile countries is common but to hit with massive artillery in which high profile military personnel are killed is a deliberate attempt by Armenia against Azerbaijan to start a full-fledged military war.

On July 12, 2020, Armenian has challenged the Azerbaijan army by launching a direct military intervention inside Azerbaijan.

The question is why Armenia has chosen this target inside Azerbaijan amid Covid19 when the whole world is battling the epidemic Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan warmongering attitude has put the whole South Caucasus on the brink of massive catastrophe.

Armenia is facing the worst economic crisis of its history during the Nikol Pashinyan era. His tall claims for the betterment of the economy are being failed. When the worsening economic situation is turning towards another upsurge against Pashinyan he has engaged Armenians into a confrontation with Azerbaijan. It is easy to play with anti-Azerbaijani sentiments rather than delivering for the wellbeing of people. To spread hatred and then exploit it for the so-called national interests is the tool for various governments around the world. Armenia is following this hatred principle but it can take Armenia to the topsy turvy path of troubles.

So now Armenian people forget about the economic crisis. In Covid19 the economic situation in Armenia has almost wrecked and there were expected riots by the people against Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, so the attack on Tovuz was planned to divert this pressure. 

Nagorno Karabakh.

The international pressure against Armenia is increasing day by day to full fill the United Nation resolution and OSEC Minks Group Madird principles on Nagorno Karabakh. Whenever there is a smooth process of peaceful negotiations workout Armenia used such kinds of tactics to flee from the dialogue table. For Armenia, it is getting hard to justify the illegal occupation of Nagorno Karabakh. In Feb 2020 at the Munich Security, the debate between Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev and between Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Azerbaijan stance was quite strong as compared to Armenian Prime Minister Justifications.

What next?

After the July 12, 2020 attack by Armenia the distrust level and uncertainty in the relations of both countries have been increased. The war sentiments have been aroused across the borders of both the rival countries. Nevertheless, another horrific example of targeting the Azerbaijani citizens by Armenia’s nationals has started into various parts of the world. There are dozens of attacks that have been reported on social media and these gestures are pointing towards an unending enmity and hatred.

In the modern human world, the best solution to any dispute is table and dialogue. The path of aggression and war is not the way of peaceful and civilized nations. Those who adopt the policy of aggression always lose the moral and ethical grounds for any cause.

Malik Ayub Sumbal is a Geopolitical Analyst, Commentator, and Award-Winning journalist.

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Malik Ayub Sumbal